Why Open Source LLMs Are 18 Months Behind Closed Source - And Closing
A year ago, the conventional wisdom was that open source LLMs were 12-18 months behind frontier closed source models. The argument was structural: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google had compute budgets, proprietary data, and research talent that academic labs and independent efforts could not match. That argument has eroded significantly. Not because the resource gap disappeared - it did not - but because the techniques that produce frontier models have been published, replicated, and improved upon faster than anyone predicted. ...